INSIDE IRAQ

A series of attacks against Iraqi security forces in Baghdad killed at least six police and soldiers today (Sept.25.)

 

Iraq is beset by mounting tensions both inside and out. The government is deadlocked and corrupt, and a quarter of the population lives in poverty.

by RA

Our Baghdad Correspondent

On September 9, a wave of deadly attacks swept across Iraq, claiming about one hundred lives and marking the worst violent day since the U.S. army draw-down in December 2011. 

Though much less frequent, such violence has continued in a fragile country that has yet to establish a post-war identity. In addition, deep-seated sectarianism, political disarray and widespread corruption,  are putting the future of Iraq in jeopardy.

The Iraqi political scene is dominated by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,left, and his State of Law Coalition of Shiite political figures, and the opposition bloc of Iraqiya, led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite and partner of Maliki in the current "coalition government", whose bloc predominantly consists of Sunni figures. 

Allawi and other opposition figures accuse Maliki of monopolizing power and bullying opponents. The latest example has been the prosecution of the vice president, the Sunni Tariq al Hashemi, who was tried and sentenced to death in absentia on terrorism charges. As a result, power sharing has never truly materialized and Iraqi politics have largely stalemated.     

ARMED MILITIAS

Besides the dysfunctional political process, the country is replete with various armed extremist groups. Al-Qaeda militants or al-Qaeda affiliates attack Shia-populated areas. The Shia-Sunni ongoing tensions may potentially spread further to encompass intra-Shia frictions. It may also deteriorate into an ethno-sectarian conflict if Arab-Kurd tensions exacerbate.

In fact, Arab-Kurd violence is a real possibility. There is friction between the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government in Baghdad over contested territories as well as the distribution of oil revenues.

In a nutshell, further complications along the lines of ethno-sectarian conflicts resulting in bloodshed on the ground may lead to the collapse of the country into three separate entities - readily defined in political, geographical and demographical terms: a Kurdish dominated North, a Sunni dominated Center, and a Shia dominated South.

Iraq's stability is threatened by two ticking time bombs: a paralyzed political system, on the one hand, and simmering ethno-sectarian conflicts on the other.

CORRUPTION

Corruption is another vexing challenge to the country's stability. Corruption has increased as oil revenues have taken off. Iraq has the world's fifth-largest oil reserves -- surpassing Iran last August. Iraqi oil production exceeded the 3 million barrel a day mark last July, according to the International Energy Agency, which is 300,000 barrels per day higher than the country's average output in 2011.

Some reports suggest that oil production will hit 11 million barrel a day.  Baghdad has signed behemoth contracts with oil giants such as Exxon Mobil, ENI, British Petroleum, Chevron and Total.

The multinationals investments ostensibly should restore the country's depleted infrastructure and improve the quality of life for ordinary Iraqis. 

Nevertheless, corruption, disproportionate distribution of oil revenues among provinces, the central government's lack of attention to outlying provinces and the resulting fact that a quarter to a third of Iraqis still live in poverty are inflaming resentment and stoking calls for a breakup of the country.

EXTERNAL PRESSURES

The internal conundrum aside, Iraq is geographically surrounded by Iran and Syria.

Iranians have sought to bolster their influence over Iraqi Shia factions. For example, Tehran is attempting to exert power over Iraq's pivotal religious city of Najaf by trying to install one of its top clerics.

On the political level, the Iranian leadership is capitalizing on its strong ties to Prime Minister Maliki to further its influence. The recent use of the open Iraqi air corridor between Tehran and Damascus to transport personnel and equipment into Syria is a prime example. Iraqi nationalist sentiments, however, stand to limit this influence.
 
The daunting events in Iran and Syria may at some point spill over into Iraq, for it is home to a motley array of sects and ethnicities.

This combustible combination necessitates determined action on the part of the Iraqi leaders. Instead, for reasons outlined above, the country seems destined to continue to stagnate.

On a personal note, living and working in Iraq is a unique experience. As dangerous and underdeveloped as it seems, the oil-rich country offers limitless opportunities for an ambitious Lebanese like myself.

 Due to security reasons, the environment is still not perfectly business-friendly. Every undertaking requires painstaking advance planning and prudent execution. However, this is offset by the hospitality, courage and resilience of the Iraqi people. 

The current impediments notwithstanding, Iraqis have the potential to put the appalling years of war behind them.