If gold does not fall back over the summer we could see 1500 test sometime in the next year. 12-18 mos. It really depends on what we see over the normally quiet summer months for gold. May-mid July is normally bearish for gold. We will see.
Several factors are working for gold right now, including:
1) The USFed is tying to cap the dollar's rise and quell the international ramifications from a rising dollar. A lot of foreigners took out loans/mortgages in USD to save on interest costs, but are having a hard time paying them. The Fed is now talking down the US economy in hopes it can keep the Fed Funds rate as low as possible for as long as possible. They hope this will provide the global currency markets time to calm down.
2) The US presidential elections have become a dog-and-pony show. Investors are wondering what is going on with the US government and its election process.
3) Stock market volatility.
4) The buyers of gold - They include well connected hedge funds, sovereign funds, and the people I consider the remnants of the Daddy Bush Cabal. This is a change from the past. These people are in the know and help to shape the direction of the globe. They aren't just the Ackmans and Paulsons of the world. I have noticed that we are seeing a gradual shift in who is buying gold.
Henry, The USFed should have been raising rates since 2012-2013, and they should be 150 bps higher. But the Fed's hands are tied as it is trying to pursue international objectives - something it isn't designed to perform.
This is why the US stock market is doing well, considering all the talk of collapse. There are Dow stocks with +3% dividend yields. XOM is yielding 3.5%. This is more than the US long bond. If short term rates continue to stay this low, we could easily see the Dow cross 20,000 with the next 18 months.
You and I both know the election process is supposed to look like a sham, so the US increasingly looks like a backwater dictatorship. We can go on and on about the NWO agenda. We agree on this. Your articles continually point out these sobering truths.
I have to believe the USFed knows it is in the process of creating a huge stock market bubble. These people are much more intelligent than we are, so they cannot be that obtuse. I can see the politicians talking stock market bubble and forcing the USFed to react by raising rates. They did this in 2005 to deflate the real estate bubble. We all know how that ended. Gold started rising and crossed 450 in the summer of 2005 in anticipation of what was to come.
Bottom line. Gold here is rising in anticipation of what is to come. The smart people are buying. It could fall back during the summer, but unless the governments of the world outlaw or restrict gold ownership or tax it, etc. I see no reason why it can't continue to rise.
Just a word of caution - the large commercials (JPM, GS, C) have huge short positions and have continued to build their shorts over the past couple months.